Customer Value Simulations Authors: Mihai Calciu and Werner Reinartz
 How to get started

Customer acquisition and retention

* Number of potential customers
* Acquisition probability
* Discount rate
* Marketing cost for retained customers
* Number of periods
min (or initial)
max (or final)
growth rate
get from the
decision calculus applet
* Sales per customer <--
* Margin per customer <--
* Retention rate <--

If you need help to estimate the growth rates, use this decision calculus applet. The applet shows you the growth dependig on the growth rate and the minimum and maximum input and ouput values you inidcate.
For example if you want to estimate how the margin evolves during the given number of periods, you need to fill the data mentioned below.
The minimum and maximum Inputs are the beginning and the end of the period. In this example they should be set between 0 and 15.
The minimum and maximum Outputs refere in this example to the margin.
For the sake of visual clarity use integer values. For the margin these values can be between 35 and 40 (meaning percent).
The reactivity is the growth rate. It usually should be smaller than one. Try several growth rates until you find the one that suites your case best.


Mihai Calciu
Assistant Professor of Marketing
IAE de Lille
104 Av. du Peuple Belge
59043 Lille cedex
Phone +33 (3)  20123409
Fax +33 (3) 20123448

Werner J. Reinartz
Assistant Professor of Marketing
Boulevard de Constance
F-77305 Fontainebleau, France
Phone +33 (1) 6071 2648
Fax +33 (1) 6074 6717